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Discussion Starter #1
Italy and Korea hit pretty hard. Japan has closed schools early and they won’t open until after their spring break. First US death in Washington state. The ease with which this spreads could foreshadow some big problems. I am concerned as my wife has asthma, but hey what do you do...stay calm and wash your hands.
Same kill rate as the 1918-19 Spanish flu....2% of a third of the planet would be a big number.
 

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Same kill rate as the 1918-19 Spanish flu....2% of a third of the planet would be a big number.
I mean no disrespect, I truly don't. But citing mortality rates is one of the things that's driving me nuts on the "news". Epidemiologists have stated it's way too early to start throwing out these #'s which are appearing on news feeds every hour. You can't calculate mortality rate without an accurate infection rate. The infection #'s so far ONLY include people who have either tested positive and most of them have been hospitalized. For all we know 600,00 have been exposed, maybe a million. Imagine if flu death stats only included people hospitalized for the flu. How many people are walking around with mild or no symptoms. Some CDC guy said as many as 80% of the infected may not show symptoms, but again just a guess.

This is a serious disease, no doubt. But what makes this different from N1H1 is the total misinformation and hysteria. Everyone on the internet seems to be a amateur pathologist/virologist these days. In the final analysis,this will be the major legacy of COVID-19 IMO. There will be more fatalities for sure, but speculation and comparison to past epidemics is really really overreaching at this point.

/rant
 

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Try to smile folks.

I am 73, asthmatic, Got hit by a 8 point buck in 2011, got stitches in my knee from a fricken bicycle crash, used to drag knee at 100 mph on my racebike
Not gonne let this ruin my life ... until it does :cool:

The news is Americans are not drinking Corona Beer because of the outbreak!
The true news is Corona beer IS the cure folks 😊

980685
980686
980687


As a vendor and depending on your business
Step forward and PLAN your 2020 season.

Richard
RKA
 

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Discussion Starter #4
That seems to be the American response so far. Might be the right one might not.
 

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Bill Gates, who is actually a leading expert in this field, just published this in the New England Journal of Medicine - a peer reviewed article.

"In the past week, Covid-19 has started behaving a lot like the once-in-a-century pathogen we’ve been worried about. I hope it’s not that bad, but we should assume it will be until we know otherwise.
There are two reasons that Covid-19 is such a threat. First, it can kill healthy adults in addition to elderly people with existing health problems."

In 2014 -

 

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Discussion Starter #7
Actually Slowdive I’m not either hysterical or offended by your response or the news of the virus. I’m just putting out there what is going on in other countries. Whether I believe in a thing or not doesn’t make it real, just as living in denial won’t make it go away either. It seems today people care less about facts, especially those that contradict their beliefs and blame the news instead. Sorry if I went all Chicken Little on you.
As you were gentlemen.
 

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the total misinformation and hysteria. Everyone on the internet seems to be a amateur pathologist/virologist these days.
I am in no way attempting to downplay the existence/threat level of this new bug. However, there is some new kind of stupid going on as well. As Slowdive stated, misinformation from the interweb have already caused buying sprees and near-panic.
Some businesses are already in receivership. There are going to be more. :cry:
 

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Bill Gates, who is actually a leading expert in this field, just published this in the New England Journal of Medicine - a peer reviewed article.
Sorry RockAZ...calling you out on this one. Bill Gate is philanthropist and a very intelligent man. He, by no means, is a leading expert in this this field...or in any field of virology, biology, or medicine. The commentary he wrote for the NEJM is a "perspective" and not a "research article" and should be taken as such...an editorial.
 

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I agree, Bill is not in the labs with the beakers and test tubes, which is what you call an expert. That is not his expertise he brings to the matter. Let's agree to call him an informed leading authority on pandemics, then?
 

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Both are bad... overplaying (current media) AND underplaying (others who shall not be named). We don't yet have solid data regarding mortality that's true... but there's already data points indicating that it's in the neighborhood of 20 times more deadly than the flu. If countries wait until it's active in their populations before doing anything they will lose more people than if they prepare and get people prepared.

Lots of folks have been critical of China for how they've responded... but I doubt there's any other country in the world that will cope as well with that level of outbreak. They did the usual Chinese "save face by downplaying the problem until we can't" thing... but once they started acting they were able to do things that it would be nearly impossible to do in the US (shutting down entire cities). They also were unable to cope with the influx of citizens into their medical system but they didn't have large swaths of their population actively avoiding the medical system because they can't afford it like we will.

IMO given how bad this could get it's better to err on the side of overplaying then it is to tell people everything is OK when medical experts are far closer to the media's position than the "Other people" who've been sharing their opinions about it.

Admittedly I'm risk averse about things like this... but I'm also paying attention to what the medical community is saying partly because the media are playing this up (tho I wish they weren't quite so overzealous about it). I cancelled my Feb. trip to China a week before governments shut down travel and a couple days before my company announced that all China travel was banned. I was in the EU last week and every cough on the flight had me looking to see who was coughing. Then when I developed a cough a day after I got back I spent the week working from home.

Reasonable and practical precautions that people should be taking. Too much caution will cost the economy... too little will kill more people. Pick what's more important to you and act accordingly I guess.
 

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I agree, Bill is not in the labs with the beakers and test tubes, which is what you call an expert. That is not his expertise he brings to the matter. Let's agree to call him an informed leading authority on pandemics, then?
Bill Gates IS an expert at leveraging the expertise of those who should be trusted to give him good information. That's how he became what he is.
 

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Bill Gates IS an expert at leveraging the expertise of those who should be trusted to give him good information. That's how he became what he is.
This is the kinder gentler Bill Gates, but how he 'became what he is' a different story. Brilliant guy, but he used ruthless business tactics to make MS a world dominating s/w company and himself a mega-billionaire. When more innovative options threatened MS, he squashed them. And he was wrong...alot. He was wrong about mobile, he was wrong about network security. Windows & office were pretty mediocre in his day but they were ubiquitous and widely adopted.

Admirable guy, particularly in his later life, but let's not make him out to be something hes not. Not infallible and not a virologist.

This was an irresponsible statement at this juncture and IMO and something I think isn't helpful. The rest of the perspective was fine.

"The data so far suggest that the virus has a case fatality risk around 1%; this rate would make it many times more severe than typical seasonal influenza, putting it somewhere between the 1957 influenza pandemic (0.6%) and the 1918 influenza pandemic (2%)."
except maybe this statement which describes a geometric rate of increase Bill. (FYI, I'm kidding here - being a piss ant on purpose)

Second, Covid-19 is transmitted quite efficiently. The average infected person spreads the disease to two or three others — an exponential rate of increase
 

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Speaking of Bill Gates, the corona virus is quite figuratively died in his backyard.
Washington state man becomes first U.S. coronavirus fatality


Due to my age (recently turned 70) and a medical condition which has pretty much shot my immuno system, I too am in one of the high risk populations. Even a cat scratch can send me to the ER.

Hopefully a vaccine will be developed that we can get every year like flu shots.
 

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Discussion Starter #15
I posted this, not to alarm people, but as a comment on what’s happening in the world. The fires in Australia for example are news, not necessarily a platform for a climate change debate.
I think the response in China is nothing short of amazing. Two hospitals built in something like ten days, check out the video, a huge city shut down, thousands of doctors marched in like troops.
But hey like everything else these days it gets people all angry.
That’s the real disease.
The economic effects are huge, but the effect on society where people are ignoring doctors and science is really scary and profoundly stupid.
 

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A lot: two words.
Pissant: one word.

:devilish:;)
Periods end sentences and those aren't sentences.
😛

Also
Pissant
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Formica rufa, a typical pissant
A pissant, also seen as piss ant or piss-ant, refers to a specific type of ant. The word is also used as a pejorative noun or adjective, indicating insignificance.
 

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I agree, Bill is not in the labs with the beakers and test tubes, which is what you call an expert. That is not his expertise he brings to the matter. Let's agree to call him an informed leading authority on pandemics, then?
Nope... he's not an epidemiologist. The folks at the CDC would find that a bit insulting. Bill Gates is a businessman...his comments on COVID-19 carry as much weight as any layman's...he's just got a nice platform from which he's is heard.
 

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Nope... he's not an epidemiologist.
Exactly. BTW, @mlukason is a scientist at a biotech firm AFAIK so he's not a punter like the rest of of us.

Here is an example. Bill Gates is a chess enthusiast with rating of 1600 (claimed). Here he is playing a grand master. Spoiler alert, he was mated in 9 moves. Granted he was playing the best in the world. But my point is a smart enthusiast (even an obscenely rich one) should not be confused with a true expert.

 
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